According to @ai_9684xtpa, the OKX event ran a live meme trading competition and even handed out seed phrases during an afternoon sub-session, source: @ai_9684xtpa. The morning main stage used green lighting with a cyberpunk feel, and several usually low-profile speakers showed up, source: @ai_9684xtpa. High-frequency topics for traders included 2026 direction, bear market growth strategies, prediction markets, and the outlook for silver, source: @ai_9684xtpa. A tongue-in-cheek remark about needing 10 BTC to attend next year underscored the event’s crypto-native tone, and the OKX team hosted a lively gathering by the sea with fireworks, source: @ai_9684xtpa.

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket user itscherry, who joined in July 2024 without placing prior trades, placed a 46.6K dollars wager on the market titled Russia × Ukraine will not ceasefire by the end of 2026, source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2014608511142125831. The position and wallet details are visible on Polymarket at https://polymarket.com/0x1c37eefe1582e51fc1016dd2922564f1d19618de, source: https://polymarket.com/0x1c37eefe1582e51fc1016dd2922564f1d19618de.

According to @borgetsebastien, citing Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 report, crypto adoption is being pulled by adjacent behaviors across finance apps, trading platforms, prediction markets, sports betting, and gaming mechanics that converge in the same attention layer (Sensor Tower State of Mobile 2026). Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 report indicates crypto users skew young (18–34), male, and cross-app native, moving fluidly across trading platforms, neobanks, prediction markets, and sportsbooks (Sensor Tower State of Mobile 2026). Sensor Tower data shows sports betting users are about 5x more likely to be crypto traders, with the Crypto Trader persona the top over-indexed segment among betting app users at roughly 19.1x (Sensor Tower State of Mobile 2026). Sensor Tower reports that distribution via adjacent apps now outperforms pure crypto onboarding, with nearly 30% of prediction market users also using major trading apps in the same month (Sensor Tower State of Mobile 2026). Sensor Tower finds crypto app downloads down by around 30% year over year while time spent in finance apps rises by approximately 8.5% year over year, signaling deeper engagement from power users (Sensor Tower State of Mobile 2026). Sensor Tower further notes regulatory differences create product arbitrage, with prediction markets capturing demand in regions where sports betting is restricted, including CA, TX, and FL (Sensor Tower State of Mobile 2026). Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 concludes winners will be embedded where attention already lives, underscoring a power-user growth cycle rather than a mass-market one (Sensor Tower State of Mobile 2026).

According to @milesdeutscher, a leading Polymarket-focused tool is undergoing a major rebrand and migrating to the Soar ecosystem, with multiple high-upside projects worth researching. According to @problydottrade on X, Polybro is rebranding to problydottrade and evolving into a unified trading terminal for reality markets that connects prediction markets with real world metrics to make outcomes legible, tradable, and accountable. According to @problydottrade, the Polybro token will migrate to Soar (@LaunchOnSoar) to enable a product roadmap, sustainable fees and revenue, and long-term alignment among users, builders, and the protocol. According to @problydottrade, the platform’s intelligence layer uses purpose-built agents to read primary sources, track market structure and price action, analyze rules and resolution conditions, and surface what moves outcomes. Based on @problydottrade’s migration plan and @milesdeutscher’s recommendation to research Soar projects, traders should monitor token migration mechanics, potential liquidity shifts across prediction markets, and new exposure types emerging within the Soar ecosystem.

According to @lookonchain, a newly created Polymarket account named 'GamblingRuinsLives' was opened roughly 10 hours ago and placed a single $53.7K position on the 'Trump acquires Greenland before 2027' market with no other bets recorded, highlighting a one-off concentrated position by a new participant (source: X post by @lookonchain; market: polymarket.com/0xe522e8543f77c441c1b83f3dbb59e660972e2ad8).

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader beachboy4 moved from over $6.8M in cumulative losses to about $395K net profit within two days, generating over $10.5M profit across 5 predictions and fully recovering prior losses; Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 19, 2026, and Polymarket address 0xc2e7800b5af46e6093872b177b7a5e7f0563be51. Bet sizes rose from a few hundred thousand per bet to over $3M on a single bet during this period, indicating a sharp increase in position sizing; Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 19, 2026.

According to @OnchainLens, a newly created wallet spent 53,663 USDC to buy YES shares on the Polymarket contract asking Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027, indicating a sizable on-chain directional position in a low-probability market, source: @OnchainLens on X. According to @OnchainLens, the trader would receive a gross payout of 255,539 if the market resolves YES, which implies an estimated ~4.76x gross return and an average entry price of roughly 0.21 per share based on the figures reported, source: @OnchainLens on X. According to @OnchainLens, the account used the handle GamblingRuinsLives for this position, providing traceable on-chain activity for market participants monitoring Polymarket flow, source: @OnchainLens on X.

According to @OnchainLens, Polymarket trader 'beachboy4' realized a $6.12M profit in a single day, making the account the most profitable on the platform at present (source: Onchain Lens on X, Jan 18, 2026; Polymarket profile: polymarket.com/@beachboy4?tab=positions). According to @OnchainLens, only $687,824 remains to recover from prior cumulative losses, indicating a near full drawdown recovery in one trading session (source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket profile: polymarket.com/@beachboy4?tab=positions). For traders, these figures underscore concentrated event-settlement P/L dynamics and liquidity in prediction markets, where single-day realized gains can materially shift cumulative performance (source: Onchain Lens reported performance and Polymarket public positions page).

According to @lookonchain, two Polymarket sports-market traders repeatedly bought contracts at 48–57¢ and lost nearly $10M in less than a month, highlighting the risk of oversized positions near even odds, source: @lookonchain. Trader 0x4924 logged 346 predictions with a 46.24% win rate and a realized PnL of -$5.96M over 24 days, source: @lookonchain; source: polymarket.com/0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782. User bossoskil1 made 65 predictions with a 41.54% win rate and -$4.04M PnL in 11 days, source: @lookonchain; source: polymarket.com/0xa5ea13a81d2b7e8e424b182bdc1db08e756bd96a. @lookonchain notes that ~50¢ pricing reflects coin-flip odds, so betting big accelerates drawdowns and produces negative expectancy when win rates stay below 50%, source: @lookonchain.

According to @OnchainLens, Polymarket trader 0x006 earned approximately $1.34 million in the last 24 hours and has accumulated over $3.8 million in total profits. Source: x.com/OnchainLens/status/2011754938066747784; polymarket.com/@0x006cc834Cc092684F1B56626E23BEdB3835c16ea-1729683673397 The Polymarket profile for address 0x006cc834Cc092684F1B56626E23BEdB3835c16ea displays realized PnL exceeding $3.8 million and a 24-hour PnL around $1.34 million at the time referenced. Source: polymarket.com/@0x006cc834Cc092684F1B56626E23BEdB3835c16ea-1729683673397

According to @CoinMarketCap, Ukraine has blocked Polymarket under unlicensed gambling laws and added the domain to the national ban registry (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026). Authorities criticized the platform for hosting bets on outcomes related to the Russian invasion, signaling stricter oversight of prediction markets (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026). Polymarket is now restricted in 34 countries, including France, Germany, and the UK, limiting platform access for traders in those jurisdictions (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026).

According to @CryptoMichNL, prediction markets are a simple way to express options-like BTC trades where market odds map directly to probability and potential payout. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026. He states that when BTC is at $90K, the market-implied chance of hitting $120K within a month is below 2%, but if BTC crawls toward $100K those odds increase to 5-7% on Polymarket. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026. He adds that this shift in odds can translate into a quick 2-4x return on a yes-position if the $120K outcome is realized before month-end. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026.

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket trader lost $2.36M in 8 days after making 53 predictions with 25 wins, 28 losses, and a 47.2% win rate. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the trader focused on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA), frequently traded spread markets, bought positions mostly at $0.40–$0.60, placed very large bets of $200K to over $1M, and held to settlement with no hedging or scaling. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, winning trades typically returned +60% to +150% while losing trades settled at $0 (-100%), allowing just two or three losses to erase prior gains. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, with this payoff structure, a 47.2% win rate was not sustainable in high-variance spread markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the key lesson is that strict position limits and risk management matter more than conviction because a few wrong outcomes can destroy an entire account in prediction markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929

According to @OnchainLens, two newly created wallets bought YES shares in Polymarket’s Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 market, with Regimehasfallen spending $30,000 and thecomplicatedguy spending $20,000 while still holding $20,038 USDC on-chain, and @OnchainLens stated the latter is likely to buy more; source: @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026) and Polymarket profile pages at polymarket.com/@Regimehasfallen and polymarket.com/@thecomplicatedguy.

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader sb911 made $106K in one month with a low win rate by applying a probability-driven approach to event markets. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573 For trading, this case shows that asymmetric payoff structures and positive expected value can drive outsized PnL in prediction markets even when many positions lose, as characterized by @lookonchain. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573

According to Onchain Lens, a newly created wallet deposited 64,979 dollars into Polymarket and placed two bets, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The wallet spent 14,994 dollars on a YES position for the market Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. It also spent 49,985 dollars on a NO position for the market Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The activity is attributed to address 0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f on Polymarket, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket.

According to @OnchainDataNerd, two newly active wallets placed sizable YES wagers almost simultaneously on Polymarket’s Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027 market, with one spending $47,760 at 17 cents and another $33,999 at 15 cents, and the bettors are listed as Goopah and AmericanImperialism, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to @OnchainDataNerd, the combined stake totals about $81,759 and would return $467,199 if the contract resolves YES under Polymarket’s payout rules, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to Polymarket documentation, binary market prices reflect implied probabilities, so entries at 15-17 cents indicate roughly 15-17 percent market-implied odds at the time of execution, source: Polymarket documentation. According to Polymarket documentation, markets are settled in USDC on the Polygon network, meaning these positions are USDC-denominated and executed on Polygon, source: Polymarket documentation.

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket profile labeled tiffanytrump lost all seven political and war-related prediction markets for a combined loss of $24,472, impacting trader sentiment around celebrity-named accounts on prediction venues. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025, polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a5066d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 According to @lookonchain, this result indicates the profile does not have insider information despite the suggestive handle, reinforcing that track records matter more than names for trading decisions. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025 According to the source data on Polymarket, the address 0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 shows seven losing outcomes and a net loss of $24,472, which is directly verifiable for position-level due diligence. Source: polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20

According to @CryptoMichNL, 2025 was dominated by prediction markets, and he actively used them during the Dutch elections, the World Championships of Darts, and while trading Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH); source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Jan 8, 2026. Polymarket announced it has been named the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones, describing itself as The World's Largest Prediction Market; source: Polymarket on X, post ID 2008928601182277721. For BTC and ETH traders, the author underscores direct incorporation of prediction market information into trade execution based on his stated usage during crypto trading; source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Jan 8, 2026.

According to @OnchainDataNerd, citing @thepolynerd_, four newly created Polymarket wallets placed coordinated buy orders in the ‘US strikes Iran by Jan 31, 2026’ market when implied probability was below 18%, raising an allegation of potential insider participation; sources: https://twitter.com/OnchainDataNerd/status/2009123433582612727 https://x.com/thepolynerd_/status/2009122571535700312 https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by/us-strikes-iran-by-january-31-2026?tid=1767846811735 According to @OnchainDataNerd, the referenced wallets are 0xEFD06D1A6cC221b747890DCe15F00bf05742BF24, zzx1234k, Memeretirement, and MrEsma, each shown on Polymarket profile pages; sources: https://polymarket.com/@0xEFD06D1A6cC221b747890DCe15F00bf05742BF24-1767800907318 https://polymarket.com/@zzx1234k https://polymarket.com/@Memeretirement https://polymarket.com/@MrEsma According to @OnchainDataNerd, one of these wallets also took a position in the ‘US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026’ market to maximize profit, as noted in the thread; sources: https://x.com/thepolynerd_/status/2009122571535700312 https://twitter.com/OnchainDataNerd/status/2009123433582612727